Newly released polls show Spanberger leading Earle-Sears

RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) - Two newly released polls show Abigail Spanberger is in front in the race to be Virginia’s next governor, but the question is, by how much. 

“It is just another data point. I’m gonna be interested to see what the lineup is at Labor Day, and then October, and then election eve,” Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told 8News. 

The latest poll from Roanoke College found that Spanberger, the Democratic nominee, has a 17-point lead over Republican nominee Winsome Earle-Sears, something Sabato said is unlikely. 

“It would be a surprise if it turned out to be a Democratic landslide that big,” Sabato explained. 

Meanwhile, a Virginia Free poll found Spanberger with a much smaller four-point lead, something Sabato said is also unrealistic. 

“That’s too close a margin, and I think most people understand that, and to have zero undecideds, I don’t think I have ever seen a poll. This is May. You have a sizable portion of the population that doesn’t know either one of them,” Sabato said.

However, Sabato says regardless of the margin, both candidates will view the polls as somewhat of a bad thing. 

“The candidate who’s ahead really would prefer that there is no public polling because it will end up making their own partisans overconfident. And the candidate who’s behind always hopes there are no public polls because it could clearly affect the amount of donations they’re receiving, which determines, to some degree, the result,” Sabato told 8News. 

Sabato also cautioned that it’s May, and early polls can sometimes be out of sync with what eventually happens in November.