NOAA predicts above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane activity

RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) -- The Atlantic Hurricane Season's first forecast for this year arrived Thursday, predicting above-normal hurricane activity, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

According to NOAA, the forecast calls for an above-average year -- a 60% chance above the average season -- with 13 to 19 named storms, with 6 to 10 becoming hurricanes.

Three to five of those hurricanes are expected to reach major status -- a category three or higher, with winds of 111 mph or greater.

“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.” 

These upcoming predictions are similar to the Colorado State University forecast from April 3, according to the NOAA. This called for 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, with four being major hurricanes.

“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.” 

Why is this happening?

The expected Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast for this year is due to multiple factors. NOAA said some of these factors contributing to its predictions include warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear and the possibility for higher activity from the West African Monsoon.

This increased activity will feature high-heat content in the ocean and consistent but reduced winds. The heat energy will ultimately spike storm development, while "weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption," according to NOAA.

NOAA said that the Climate Prediction Center will update the Atlantic seasonal outlook come early August, before the peak of hurricane season.

For more information, visit NOAA's website.