New Virginia Climate report warns of rising heat, worsening flooding and economic losses
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RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) -- A new climate report from Virginia scientists shows how climate change has already changed the Commonwealth -- and how these impacts are expected to continue affecting the state for decades to come.
On Wednesday, Nov. 19, scientists released the first-ever Virginia Climate Assessment, an analysis showed accelerating warming, heavier rainfall and some of the fastest sea-level rise on the East Coast. It explains not only the current state of climate change in the state, but also economic and demographic shifts since the 1970s. The assessment covers all regions of Virginia, from the mountainous areas of Western Virginia to the coastal areas of Hampton Roads.
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Observed climate trends, future projections
Scientists have seen a significant warming trend, with a spike in annual statewide temperature of more than 1.5°F (0.8°C) since 1900 -- and the warming has accelerated in recent decades. Projections suggest that by 2100, temperatures will rise to +3–13°F (1.7–7.2°C), depending on global emissions.
The report finds that Virginia is becoming wetter overall, with more precipitation events and more frequent tidal flooding. Scientists project that under high-emissions areas, future annual precipitation will increase by 5% to 10% increase in precipitation. The 30-year period from 1991 to 2020 shows an annual temperature of 56.0°F (13.3°C) and total annual precipitation of 45.83 inches (1164 mm).
The report mentions that dry spells vary across Virginia, lasting about 16.8 days in Richmond and about 19.5 days in Norfolk. In Richmond, future projections expect that the 100-year storm rainfall to increase by 1.2 inches (30.5 mm, or 14%), based on data using a 1950–2005 historical baseline.
Rising sea levels in Virginia are attributed to a combination of global sea level rise, land subsidence and variability in oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Since 1927, the sea level has risen by 17 inches (432 mm), with local rates among the highest on the U.S. East Coast due to land subsidence. This trend is expected to continue, with increasing tidal flooding along the Atlantic coast.
Climate risks and hazards, impact
With warming temperatures across Virginia, many of the observed trends are expected to become risks and hazards moving forward.
The report notes risks and hazards: heat risk, flood risk, drought and cascading risks.
Due to the annual statewide temperature having already increased by more than 1.5°F, scientists expect more frequent or extreme heat waves, particularly noting the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) -- a metric representing heat stress from humidity, sunlight and air temperature -- rising 0.29°F per decade.
The report warns that periods of extreme heat will cause severe health impacts to Virginians, with hospitalizations and emergency calls rising significantly.
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Scientists also suspect that rising temperatures, heavy rainfall, coastal erosion and severe storms are projected to continue to impact infrastructure and ecosystems. The report mentions risks such as energy demand, grid vulnerability, buckling rails, longer growing seasons, increased invasive species and harmful algal blooms.
Virginia is also experiencing increased "wetting," with sea levels rising and storms surging. Both coastal and compound flooding are believed to contribute to further damage and drainage problems, and more short-term and flash droughts are expected. From 1950 to 2021, compound flooding has caused at least $900 million in damage, while drought problems between 1980 and 2023 cost roughly $2 billion to $5 billion.
These findings come after Central Virginia was hit by numerous severe storms that brought heavy rainfall to the region during July 2025. While several localities experienced flooding, Petersburg was hit particularly hard -- so much so that Petersburg was placed under a state of emergency until August. Mayor Samuel Parham revealed that the Appomattox River was only partially dredged in 1993. He said this lack of upkeep caused the significant flooding.
A Petersburg home damaged by flooding during severe storms the week of Sunday, July 13. (Photo: Drew Covington/8News)
A Petersburg home damaged by flooding during severe storms the week of Sunday, July 13. (Photo: Drew Covington/8News)
The report also shows that power outages are 94% weather-related and warns of degraded air quality and infrastructure failures.
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Social and economic vulnerability
The report shows many communities remain socially vulnerable to climate change across the state due to geographic exposure, socioeconomic disparities and historical inequities.
Coastal communities such as Virginia Beach and Norfolk, as well as rural and agricultural areas, are most exposed to social and economic vulnerability from sea-level rise and recurrent flooding. More than 100,000 Virginians live in homes less than five feet above the high tide line, per the report.
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Specifically, the Tidewater region alone has about $11 billion in wages and 263,500 jobs could be at risk by 2050 from tidal flooding.
The report highlights that historical patterns, including redlining, have increased heat risk in urban neighborhoods, such as Richmond. According to the report, uneven exposure outcomes -- particularly in urban areas -- have led to tools like the Climate Equity Index to identify and address neighborhood-level vulnerabilities.
Gaps and future needs
The Climate Center is urging communities across the Commonwealth to spend the money to protect entire localities and provide knowledge about what has occurred in the past.
The report specifically encourages Virginians to invest in resilient infrastructure, nature-based solutions and equity-centered strategies, as well as improve local data collection by monitoring and ensuring predictive capabilities.
In order to continue protecting Virginia communities, researchers call for integrating climate projects into all kinds of planning and enhancing community engagement around climate-related risks.
