Virginia Poll: Spanberger holds 10-point lead over Earle-Sears for governor

(WAVY) — A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey taken September 2025 shows an increased margin between Virginia gubernatorial candidates Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears.

Compared to an earlier survey taken January 2025, Spanberger’s support increased ten points from 42% to 52%, while Earle-Sears picked up one percentage point, from 41% to 42%. According to the same survey, less than 5% of voters are undecided.

January Virginia 2025 Poll: Tight race between presumptive gubernatorial candidates

“Spanberger has picked up significant momentum since the first Emerson College poll at the beginning of 2025, driven by increases in support from independents, males and younger voters,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Independent voters support Spanberger by a 19-point margin; a reversal from January, when they supported Earle-Sears by four points. Notably, the male vote, which traditionally favors the Republican candidate, shifted from a 15-point advantage for Earle-Sears to an even split, with 46% supporting each candidate."

When asked who survery-takers voted for in the 2024 Presidential election, 50% of Virginian's who participated said they voted for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. 45% of those surveyed said they voted for now President Donald Trump.

Within the September 2025 poll, Virginians were also asked which issues were most important to them. The economy took a vast majority of the votes, coming in at 35% as survey-takers' top concern. Abortion access, foreign policy, and crime made up just 7.3% total as some Virginians' top concerns.

Other issues probed in different survey questions included transgender issues, data centers, and personal property taxes. On the topic of transgender issues, a majority (31%) of those polled said it was "not important at all". As for data centers being built in Virginia, 30% said they "somewhat support" the construction of more large facilities to store and process data in the Commonwealth. The controversy behind data centers was a highlighted issue due to its large demand on the same energy grid residents use. The proposed solution by consumer advocates is for large data storage companies to bring and build their own power source. It's unclear how likely companies are to do so.

As for the familiarity of poll takers on the topic of data centers, 43% said they were somewhat familiar, and 11% said they were not up on the subject at all.

Virginians were also asked about personal property taxes, for which a vast majority (75%) agreed "yes" the tax, also referred to as the car tax, should be eliminated.

Both candidates have acknowledged the car tax as a key issue in Virginia, and have each expressed a desire to eliminate it.

Virginia governor candidates vow to end “car tax”

The Virginia general and special elections, which includes the governor’s race, is Nov. 4. Early, in-person voting for this election began Sept. 19.

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill Virginia survey was conducted September 28-29, 2025. It included a sample of 725 likely Virginia voters. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, previous vote history, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.

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