‘For every acre, you’re losing a little bit’: Virginia soybean farmer hopeful but skeptical of possible US, China trade deal

BLACKSTONE, Va. (WRIC) -- Soybean farmers across the Commonwealth are hoping a deal between the United States and China will boost their sales, but they remain skeptical.   

Soybeans are one of Virginia's largest exports -- and China is the number one buyer -- but tariffs placed on China have made the already uphill battle for farmers that much harder.  

“Unfortunately, right now, it’s like for every acre, you’re losing a little bit," said John Shepherd.

Shepherd, 40, grew up in Blackstone. His dad managed 10 acres of tobacco. 

He graduated from Virginia Tech in 2007 with a degree in agriculture science. Now, he manages 3,000 acres of grains with the help of 5 full-time employees and 2 part-timers. His wife helps with the business side and bookkeeping.

Not to mention his three kids scattered through middle and high school that he has to support.

Shepherd said his soybean crop has been flat to slightly lower than it was last year. His corn crop has grown well compared to last year, after a bad drought in June of 2024. Price-wise, both are lower than last year.

He said inflation since the pandemic has been the enemy. The cost of equipment, seed, insurance, property tax -- everything has skyrocketed.  

Shepherd leases land to grow crop nearby, but had to cutback on how much he does so, which in turn impacts the landowners.

With China buying less from U.S. farmers because of tariffs, there’s more product, so the cost of soybeans has been going down, making it harder to keep up with the cost of running the farms.   

“Lately there’s been a lot of talk -- this is gonna happen, that’s gonna happen, and then it never comes to fruition," he said.  

President Donald Trump met with Chinese president Xi Jinping in October. President Trump said China agreed to long-term U.S. soybean purchases. This would include China buying 12 million metric tons by January, and 25 million metric tons every year for 3 years.  

But that’s still lower than the typical 29 million annually, and the peak shipping time has already passed. It’s usually between the end of October and beginning of November. Plus, China hasn’t officially signed onto this.  

“They’ve kind of just, said they’re gonna just do, almost what they were doing before, but that’s better than zero," Shepherd said. "You have to kind of just become numb to it because if you worry about every little headline, about if they’re gonna buy it or not gonna buy it, it’ll just drive you crazy.”  

But Shepherd said the strain on farmers didn’t start with President Trump.  

“Prior to any of these tariffs, we were in a really bad economic situation," he said. "That was just kind of like, you’re careening down a hill on skis and you’ve never skied before and somebody comes and shoves you in the back.”  

Shepherd remembers the agriculture sector being healthy during the Obama Administration.  

Things were rocky toward the beginning of President Trump’s first term but improved after the Phase One deal between China and the U.S. was signed in January of 2020.  

China had agreed to purchase an additional $200 billion of U.S. goods over two years. But then, the pandemic and Biden Administration moved in, and the deal never reached the finish line.  

Shepherd is spending around $1.5 million to farm this year. He just has to hope he gets that back.  

"Most farmers are Christians because you gotta have a certain amount of faith to do it," he said. 

Shepherd used to take his corn to a Tyson feed mill 20 miles from him in Crewe. After Tyson shut down a plant in Glen Allen, the plant in Crewe started operating at a small fraction, meaning Shepherd had to find a new plant.

He now has to drive 80 to 100 miles away, or pay someone to take it for him -- another cost he has to swallow.

“The infrastructure in this country is just degrading and shutting down so we’re dependent upon export for everything," he said.

President Trump teased a $12 billion aid package for farmers impacted by tariffs once the government opens back up.  But Shepherd said he and other farmers don't like taking handouts like that and would rather see the money invested into the country’s infrastructure.  

"We work hard and we don't really want something for nothing," he said. “I guess it’s more or less a band aid, but it can’t be a long-term fix. They gotta figure something else out.” 

Shepherd said he plans to scale back in a decade when he's 50 and his kids are through college. Right now, farming doesn't give him much opportunity to travel or hunt like he wants to.