New poll shows majority of likely voters support or are leaning toward supporting Virginia’s redistricting referendum 

RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) -- A new George Mason University Schar School/Washington Post poll shows that 52% of likely voters support or are leaning toward supporting a proposed constitutional amendment that would allow Virginia Democrats to implement a new congressional map in Virginia.

That’s compared to 47% of likely voters who oppose or are learning toward opposing Virginia’s redistricting referendum.

“It isn’t going to be a slam dunk. I’ve said that since day one,” Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told 8News.

The poll also found that 57% of registered voters think it’s more important that Virginia’s congressional districts reflect the political makeup of the state. That’s compared to 34% who said it’s more important that Virginia’s congressional districts balance out other states that were drawn to favor one party.

“It is clearly not going to be a landslide like Abigail Spanberger’s election last November because there Democrats who have questions about whether they want to vote for a kind of gerrymandering and Republicans are also charged up, they’re the ones who feel offended, they think they’re losing some of their current representatives,” Sabato said. “At the same time because of the Democratic edge in Virginia, you still have to edge Democrats in the majority at least for right now.”

Meanwhile, 48% of registered voters think a congressional map that includes ten seats that favor Democrats and one seat that favors a Republican, like the one that would go into effect if voters approve of the referendum, is unfair. Forty-four percent of registered voters said that type of map is fair.

However, Sabato said we shouldn’t pay a whole lot of attention to some of the additional questions asked in the poll because some Democrats may have issues with the new potential map, but still vote in favor of mid-decade redistricting.

‘“They’ll often start out by saying something like, well you know, two wrongs don't make a right, and then they start talking about Donald Trump, and they say but because of Donald Trump, I’m gonna vote for this anyway,” Sabato said.

Early voting on Virginia’s redistricting referendum continues through Saturday, April 18, with Election Day on Tuesday, April 21.