Republican congressional districts hold early voting edge in redistricting referendum

RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) -- According to the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP), Republican congressional districts currently hold an early voting edge in Virginia’s redistricting referendum.

In fact, voters in each of Virginia’s five congressional districts currently held by Republicans are outvoting those in each of the six congressional districts currently held by Democrats.

VPAP found that as of March 17, in the five congressional districts currently held by Republicans, just under 110,000 have already cast their ballots. That’s compared to just under 72,000 people who have voted early in Virginia’s six congressional districts held by Democrats. 

"There seems to be at least some energy on both sides,” Randolph-Macon Political Science Professor Rich Meagher told 8News.

Meagher said although there will be no parties on the ballot, most Republicans will likely oppose the referendum and most Democrats will support the proposed constitutional amendment, which would give Democrats the power to redraw Virginia’s congressional map with a proposed map that includes ten districts that favor Democrats and only one that favors a Republican. 

Meagher added that although it’s impossible to know who exactly voted early and how they cast their ballot, the high turnout in Republican areas could make things a little more difficult for those who support redistricting. 

“You not only have to worry about skeptics on your own side, but now if you have an energized front of opposition from Republicans as well, that makes your job doubly hard,” Meagher explained. 

However, Meagher said future turnout will likely give us more insight into what the outcome of the referendum will be. 

“If it drops off after a while, then I think the pro-amendment folks might have a have a chance to breathe a little more easily, but if these numbers stay high, it should suggest to them that if they want to bring this over the finish line, they may need more investment of more ads from presidents, like President Obama, more money spent on mailers and ads, more money getting their message out,” Meagher said.

Early voting continues through April 18.