Spanberger widens lead over Earle-Sears in Virginia Governor’s race, new poll finds

RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) -- Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger has extended her lead over Republican opponent Winsome Earle-Sears, according to a new Commonwealth Poll conducted by the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at VCU.

The poll, conducted between June 19 and July 3, shows Spanberger with 49% support among registered Virginia voters compared to 37% for Earle-Sears, a 12-point lead that has grown slightly since December 2024, when Spanberger led 45% to 35%. The results fall outside the poll’s margin of error of ±4.16%.

The former CIA officer and current U.S. Representative from Virginia’s 7th District has gained momentum heading into the final stretch of the campaign, with the general election just months away on Nov. 4.

Down-ballot races also favor Democrats

Spanberger isn’t the only Democrat seeing early advantages. The poll also found:

• State Sen. Ghazala Hashmi (D) leads John Reid (R) in the lieutenant governor’s race, 46% to 36%.
• Former Del. Jay Jones (D) is ahead of incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) 47% to 38%.

Still, a large portion of independent voters remain undecided, with nearly half of independents (47%) reporting they haven’t yet made up their minds in the lieutenant governor and attorney general races.

Voters focused on cost of living, personal freedoms

When asked about top issues influencing their vote, 28% of respondents identified cost of living as their top concern—still the leading issue, though notably down from 58% in December. Concerns over reproductive rights and immigration followed, with 14% each citing those as their top priority. Education came in lower, with just 9% selecting it as the most important issue.

Approval ratings could shape GOP strategy

Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s approval rating stands at 49% -- down slightly from 51% in the December poll -- with 39% disapproving of his job performance. Former President Donald Trump remains a polarizing figure in the Commonwealth, with only 40% approval and 55% disapproval. Among independents, disapproval of Trump jumped to 66%.

Those approval ratings could be critical as Republicans look to mobilize support in a state that has leaned blue in recent statewide contests but remains competitive.

The road ahead

With both major party candidates now officially nominated, the race between Spanberger and Earle-Sears is expected to intensify over the coming months. Spanberger’s early lead gives her momentum, but analysts note that undecided independents could shift the dynamic closer to Election Day.

The Wilder School plans to release additional polling updates as the race progresses.