‘This is not natural’: VCU expert links climate change to intensifying Virginia winter storms

RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) -- A Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) expert says climate change is intensifying winter storms ahead of this weekend's snow and ice storm.

Virginians across the Commonwealth are preparing for the upcoming winter storm expected to bring several inches of snow, freezing rain and dangerous ice accumulations, which could potentially cause widespread power outages.

Our StormTracker8 team is expecting that this system will bring some snow to the region at first, starting around dinnertime on Saturday, Jan. 24. The snow will then become sleet and freezing rain in the early morning hours of Sunday, Jan. 25 -- and that freezing rain will quickly freeze into ice.

On Thursday, Jan. 22, Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) declared a state of emergency for Virginia just two days before the beginning of the storm as Virginians across the Commonwealth take precautions to protect themselves, their families and their pets ahead of the third snowstorm of the winter season so far.

MORE: Winter storm coming to Central Virginia, widespread power outages possible

A VCU professor in the School of Life Sciences and Sustainability warns that climate change may be intensifying the system and increasing the risk of widespread power outages.

8News spoke with Vickie Connors, a professor with the VCU School of Life Sciences and Sustainability, about how warming in the Arctic is influencing winter weather patterns in Virginia.

Connors said rising temperatures in the Arctic are allowing more heat and moisture to enter the atmosphere, hurting circulation patterns that usually keep cold air contained near the North Pole.

Due to this, Arctic air is more likely to spill south into regions like the United States.

"We have a significant loss of sea ice every summer," Connors said. "But, this year, the warmth that's been delivered up to the Arctic has been so strong that we're seeing the least amount of sea ice ever in the wintertime."

Due to the loss of sea ice and excess energy from greenhouse gas emissions, the polar vortex -- which is a large, low-pressure system of cold air surrounding the Earth’s poles, per the National Weather Service (NWS) -- is experiencing disruptions.

While the polar vortex typically remains stable in the winter, Connors said weakening can cause it to stretch and allow Arctic air to seep out and affect temperate regions. This particular system, Connors said, is not necessarily normal for cold-weather systems.

"This is not natural," Connors emphasized. "If we didn't have this excess amount of gases, like CO2 and methane and in our atmosphere, we would be seeing a pretty respectable polar ice cap, and we would have snow pack that's older than five years."

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Connors said similar patterns are also affecting Europe and Asia.

Without excess greenhouse gases, the Arctic would have thicker ice, older snowpack and more stable circulation -- making extreme weather patterns less likely, she said.

Connors also warned that more frequent and longer-lasting extreme events are expected, including cold snaps, ice storms, heat waves, flooding and droughts.

"The real hazard, in my mind, is the combination of the bitter cold and the freezing rain that's going to wrap up this weekend's storm," Connors said. "There's going to be so much ice coating the power lines and the trees. It's going to be cold, and this pattern isn't going to go away after a couple of days. This cold is going to be with us for a bit."

"Building resilience to extreme winter weather requires strong collaboration across all levels of government and the whole community," said Curtis Brown, former head of VDEM. "State and local governments, working with the private sector, universities, and community organizations—and supported by federal funding and climate data—can leverage new technologies to strengthen critical infrastructure such as energy, water, transportation, communications, and health care, while improving forecasting and emergency response. This practical, integrated approach will help communities recover more quickly, adapt to more frequent and intense events, and build public trust.

Connors emphasized that the combination of warmer temperatures and an increasingly open Arctic Ocean will influence weather patterns.

Connors also expressed concerns over the lack of commitment to reducing fossil fuel emissions and changing behavior to mitigate climate change.

"We would have to get really cold air, and then have a coastal low, and then it was the dreaded rain snow line," Connors said. "How did it make it to Richmond? There was always a Chesapeake Bay moderating that. So it was always tough for us to get a 6-inch snowfall. It's not tough for us to get that anymore,"

Connors warned that power outages during extreme cold pose serious risks -- especially for vulnerable populations -- and urged Virginians to prepare to be self-sufficient for three to four days following severe weather events.

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"So is this related to climate change? Absolutely," she said. "Is it direct, from point A to point B, kind of impact? No."

"It has these intermediate steps of warmth arriving in the Arctic over [a] sustained period, melting lots of ice, preventing the sea ice [from covering] the Arctic oceans, and then we have that extra energy going into the circulation pattern, causing these high amplitude waves," Connors explained.

Connors expects that Virginia could see another chance for snow the evening of Wednesday, Jan. 28, into the overnight hours of Thursday, Jan. 29. She warned that the mix of bitter cold and freezing temperatures could create hazardous conditions.

Brie Haupt, another VCU professor who has researched climate change and climate science policy, shared the following statement with 8News about how state and local governments could better prepare for future extreme winter events.

Extreme winter events should no longer be treated as rare or anomalous. From a policy and emergency management perspective, state and local governments need to plan for these storms as part of a broader pattern of compounding and cascading risk. This requires moving beyond event-specific preparedness and instead institutionalizing climate-informed assumptions within emergency operations planning, infrastructure investment, and continuity of operations—particularly related to power, heat, transportation, food access, and healthcare.

Preparedness strategies must also account for communities that are geographically isolated, resource-constrained, or historically underserved, where service disruptions are more likely to translate into disproportionate harm. Policy design matters here: when planning frameworks prioritize systems efficiency without accounting for how people actually experience disruptions—such as the loss of heat, food access, or mobility—they can unintentionally render some populations invisible within response and recovery decisions.

As agencies look ahead, the way they communicate about climate science will shape both public understanding and institutional legitimacy. Treating climate data as decision-support information—rather than as a political or ideological signal—allows agencies to explain how science is being used to guide protective actions, maintain essential services, and reduce avoidable harm. Communication that acknowledges lived experience, while remaining grounded in evidence, is critical for sustaining trust during prolonged and disruptive winter events.

Our StormTracker8 team continues to track this system. More updates will be provided when possible.

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